# Table 4b: Fiscal Paradox — Safe Issuers

Aging safe issuers face rising fiscal pressure that may threaten their safety status.

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4a: Safe Z → expenditure | govt_expenditure_gdp | 752 | 28 | 0.257 |
| M4b: Safe Z → revenue | govt_revenue_gdp | 752 | 28 | 0.142 |
| M4c: Safe Z → debt/GDP | govt_debt_gdp | 733 | 28 | 0.150 |
| M4d: Non-safe Z → debt/GDP | govt_debt_gdp | 4026 | 155 | 0.116 |

## Demographic Coefficients

| Model | Z₁ | Z₁ p | Z₂ | Z₂ p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4a: Safe Z → expenditure | -33.15** | 0.0337 | 3.20 | 0.1323 |
| M4b: Safe Z → revenue | 8.25 | 0.5861 | -3.12 | 0.1301 |
| M4c: Safe Z → debt/GDP | 84.31** | 0.0499 | -19.71*** | 0.0007 |
| M4d: Non-safe Z → debt/GDP | -92.25* | 0.0708 | 10.73 | 0.1582 |

*Expenditure-revenue asymmetry from fiscal dominance paper: +10pp OADR → +12pp expenditure, +5pp revenue.*